Argentina.
Inflation remains a major weakness despite positive growth. Fiscal adjustment and currency confidence determine whether stabilisation becomes durable.
BIS: monetary aggregates replaced the policy rate in July 2025.
What the pension figure means.
N/C means that a full national measure on the Eurostat basis was not established. It does not mean zero pension obligations.
The 2026 IMF review describes recent pension spending near 8½% of GDP and contributions near 4¼%. The difference is an annual financing gap, not an accrued pension liability.
Read the pension evidence and definitions. (external source)
Protest and riot risk.
Inflation, pension purchasing power, and fiscal adjustment could generate major demonstrations and violent clashes.
The horizon is the next 12 months. These are qualitative author assessments, with medium confidence.
World Bank 2025 context: political stability 68.4/100; voice and accountability 65.9/100. These indicators do not predict protests.
Potential triggers above are scenarios, except where an official source explicitly reports an event. Peaceful protest is not violence.
The economic path.
One IMF vintage keeps revisions and projections consistent.
Real GDP growth
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections-1.4% in 2024 · 3.5% in 2027
Average CPI inflation
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections219.9% in 2024 · 21.2% in 2027
Government debt / GDP
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections84.6% in 2024 · 70.4% in 2027
| Year / status | Debt / GDP | GDP growth | Inflation | Unemployment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Historical WEO series | 84.6% | -1.4% | 219.9% | 7.2% |
| 2025Historical WEO series | 80.1% | 4.5% | 41.9% | 7.4% |
| 2026Estimate / projection | 69.3% | 2.1% | 32.5% | 7.6% |
| 2027Estimate / projection | 70.4% | 3.5% | 21.2% | 7.1% |
Historical values can include IMF estimates. India follows the IMF fiscal-year convention. Source-specific definitions limit cross-country precision.
Sources and exact series.
GGXWDG_NGDP · ARG · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.NGDP_RPCH · ARG · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.PCPIPCH · ARG · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.LUR · ARG · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.From 10 July 2025 onwards: no policy rate adopted; from 22 July 2024 to 9 July 2025: liquidity absorption rate for treasury bills; from 18 December 2023 to 21 July 2024: Overnight Reverse Repos Interest Rate; from 6 January 2022 to 17 December 2023: 28-day Liquidity Bills (LELIQ) interest rate; from 21 January 2020 to 5 January 2022: weighted average interest rate of minimum term LELIQ issued at the last auction process; from 1 October 2018 to 20 January 2020, average interest rate of the accepted offers for the liquidity bills; from 8 August 2018 to 30 September 2018: 7 days liquidity bills interest rate; from 2 January 2017 to 7 August 2018, median of the repo rate corridor; from 16 December 2015 to 1 January 2017: interest rate in BCRA bills (LEBACs), 35 days LEBAC auction; from 29 Jan 2014 to 15 Dec 2015: CB issues, 3 months; from 11 Sep 2009 to 28 Jan 2014:7-day reverse repo operations; before 10 Sep 2009, refer to https://data.bis.org/topics/CBPOL Source institution: Central Bank of Argentina.
Accessed 25 October 2026.Eurostat key where available: A.PC_GDP.S13PU.F63_LE.AR. Values retain their own reference year.
Accessed 25 October 2026.2025 observations: GOV_WGI_GE_SC, GOV_WGI_PV_SC, and GOV_WGI_VA_SC. The economic formula uses effectiveness only.
Accessed 25 October 2026.The report uses country-specific discussion of demonstrations. Generic warnings alone do not establish the likelihood of riots.
Accessed 25 October 2026.External retirement-system benchmark, published 20 October 2026. The report preserves its score separately from the author rating.
Accessed 25 October 2026.