Brazil.
High public debt and borrowing costs constrain investment and fiscal flexibility. Positive growth does not remove the need for durable adjustment.
BIS observation: 2026-10-20
What the pension figure means.
N/C means that a full national measure on the Eurostat basis was not established. It does not mean zero pension obligations.
The 2026 IMF review places public pension spending at about 13% of GDP. Annual spending cannot be added to the debt stock, and it does not measure an actuarial shortfall.
Read the pension evidence and definitions. (external source)
Protest and riot risk.
Political disputes and fiscal choices could mobilise major demonstrations. Local clashes are plausible, with substantial variation across cities.
The horizon is the next 12 months. These are qualitative author assessments, with medium confidence.
World Bank 2025 context: political stability 58.9/100; voice and accountability 65.5/100. These indicators do not predict protests.
Potential triggers above are scenarios, except where an official source explicitly reports an event. Peaceful protest is not violence.
The economic path.
One IMF vintage keeps revisions and projections consistent.
Real GDP growth
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections3.4% in 2024 · 1.9% in 2027
Average CPI inflation
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections4.4% in 2024 · 4.1% in 2027
Government debt / GDP
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections87.0% in 2024 · 99.3% in 2027
| Year / status | Debt / GDP | GDP growth | Inflation | Unemployment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Historical WEO series | 87.0% | 3.4% | 4.4% | 6.9% |
| 2025Historical WEO series | 93.3% | 2.3% | 5.0% | 6.0% |
| 2026Estimate / projection | 97.0% | 2.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% |
| 2027Estimate / projection | 99.3% | 1.9% | 4.1% | 6.8% |
Historical values can include IMF estimates. India follows the IMF fiscal-year convention. Source-specific definitions limit cross-country precision.
Sources and exact series.
GGXWDG_NGDP · BRA · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.NGDP_RPCH · BRA · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.PCPIPCH · BRA · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.LUR · BRA · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.From 5 Mar 1999 onwards Central Bank target, money market (SELIC) overnight rate; from 1 Jul 1996 to 4 Mar 1999: Central Bank official rediscount rate; from 4 Jun 1986 to 30 Jun 1996: official market intervention rate, representative rate. Source institution: Central Bank of Brazil.
Accessed 25 October 2026.Eurostat key where available: A.PC_GDP.S13PU.F63_LE.BR. Values retain their own reference year.
Accessed 25 October 2026.2025 observations: GOV_WGI_GE_SC, GOV_WGI_PV_SC, and GOV_WGI_VA_SC. The economic formula uses effectiveness only.
Accessed 25 October 2026.The report uses country-specific discussion of demonstrations. Generic warnings alone do not establish the likelihood of riots.
Accessed 25 October 2026.External retirement-system benchmark, published 20 October 2026. The report preserves its score separately from the author rating.
Accessed 25 October 2026.