China.
Growth remains stronger than in many advanced economies. A high public debt ratio and limited transparency reduce my resilience assessment.
BIS observation: 2026-10-19
What the pension figure means.
N/C means that a full national measure on the Eurostat basis was not established. It does not mean zero pension obligations.
An IMF working-paper model estimates 2050 pension spending at 11.9% of GDP after retirement-age reform, versus 15.3% without it. These are scenario flows, not accrued debt or an official IMF forecast.
Read the pension evidence and definitions. (external source)
Protest and riot risk.
Property losses, unpaid wages, and local services are potential triggers for local protests. Restrictions and reporting limits reduce confidence in visible-event comparisons.
The horizon is the next 12 months. These are qualitative author assessments, with low confidence.
World Bank 2025 context: political stability 66.0/100; voice and accountability 26.1/100. These indicators do not predict protests.
Potential triggers above are scenarios, except where an official source explicitly reports an event. Peaceful protest is not violence.
The economic path.
One IMF vintage keeps revisions and projections consistent.
Real GDP growth
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections5.0% in 2024 · 4.0% in 2027
Average CPI inflation
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections0.2% in 2024 · 1.4% in 2027
Government debt / GDP
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections90.5% in 2024 · 109.1% in 2027
| Year / status | Debt / GDP | GDP growth | Inflation | Unemployment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Historical WEO series | 90.5% | 5.0% | 0.2% | 5.1% |
| 2025Historical WEO series | 98.6% | 5.0% | 0.0% | 5.1% |
| 2026Estimate / projection | 104.4% | 4.5% | 1.0% | 5.1% |
| 2027Estimate / projection | 109.1% | 4.0% | 1.4% | 5.1% |
Historical values can include IMF estimates. India follows the IMF fiscal-year convention. Source-specific definitions limit cross-country precision.
Sources and exact series.
GGXWDG_NGDP · CHN · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.NGDP_RPCH · CHN · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.PCPIPCH · CHN · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.LUR · CHN · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.From 20 Aug 2019 onwards: Loan Prime Rate (1 year): from 1 Jan 1996 till 19 Aug 2019: Official lending rate (1 year). Source institution: People's Bank of China.
Accessed 25 October 2026.Eurostat key where available: A.PC_GDP.S13PU.F63_LE.CN. Values retain their own reference year.
Accessed 25 October 2026.2025 observations: GOV_WGI_GE_SC, GOV_WGI_PV_SC, and GOV_WGI_VA_SC. The economic formula uses effectiveness only.
Accessed 25 October 2026.The report uses country-specific discussion of demonstrations. Generic warnings alone do not establish the likelihood of riots.
Accessed 25 October 2026.External retirement-system benchmark, published 20 October 2026. The report preserves its score separately from the author rating.
Accessed 25 October 2026.