India.
Rapid growth supports convergence. Public debt, job quality, and institutional capacity still constrain how widely growth improves household welfare.
BIS observation: 2026-10-19
What the pension figure means.
N/C means that a full national measure on the Eurostat basis was not established. It does not mean zero pension obligations.
The international pension benchmark shows weak coverage and adequacy. I did not establish a national accrued-to-date liability on the Eurostat basis. Public employee obligations and funded account assets cover different groups.
Read the pension evidence and definitions. (external source)
Protest and riot risk.
Food costs, employment, and policy disputes could produce disruptive demonstrations and local violent clashes. Risk differs substantially by state.
The horizon is the next 12 months. These are qualitative author assessments, with medium confidence.
World Bank 2025 context: political stability 55.0/100; voice and accountability 54.9/100. These indicators do not predict protests.
Potential triggers above are scenarios, except where an official source explicitly reports an event. Peaceful protest is not violence.
The economic path.
One IMF vintage keeps revisions and projections consistent.
Real GDP growth
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections7.2% in 2024 · 7.0% in 2027
Average CPI inflation
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections4.6% in 2024 · 4.4% in 2027
Government debt / GDP
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections84.8% in 2024 · 81.3% in 2027
| Year / status | Debt / GDP | GDP growth | Inflation | Unemployment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Historical WEO series | 84.8% | 7.2% | 4.6% | 5.0% |
| 2025Historical WEO series | 84.3% | 7.8% | 2.0% | 5.0% |
| 2026Estimate / projection | 83.1% | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% |
| 2027Estimate / projection | 81.3% | 7.0% | 4.4% | 5.0% |
Historical values can include IMF estimates. India follows the IMF fiscal-year convention. Source-specific definitions limit cross-country precision.
Sources and exact series.
GGXWDG_NGDP · IND · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.NGDP_RPCH · IND · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.PCPIPCH · IND · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.LUR · IND · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.From 3 Apr 2001 onwards: official repo overnight rate; from 1 Jan 1946 to 2 Apr 2001: oank rate. Source institution: Reserve Bank of India.
Accessed 25 October 2026.Eurostat key where available: A.PC_GDP.S13PU.F63_LE.IN. Values retain their own reference year.
Accessed 25 October 2026.2025 observations: GOV_WGI_GE_SC, GOV_WGI_PV_SC, and GOV_WGI_VA_SC. The economic formula uses effectiveness only.
Accessed 25 October 2026.The report uses country-specific discussion of demonstrations. Generic warnings alone do not establish the likelihood of riots.
Accessed 25 October 2026.External retirement-system benchmark, published 20 October 2026. The report preserves its score separately from the author rating.
Accessed 25 October 2026.