Japan.
The debt ratio is exceptionally high, but domestic financing and public assets matter. Low unemployment does not offset weak growth and ageing.
BIS observation: 2026-10-20
What the pension figure means.
N/C means that a full national measure on the Eurostat basis was not established. It does not mean zero pension obligations.
The 2024 actuarial review assesses finances through FY2120 and targets a final reserve around one year of benefits. Automatic benefit adjustments help balance resources; this is not a net-debt estimate.
Read the pension evidence and definitions. (external source)
Protest and riot risk.
Living costs and policy disputes could produce demonstrations. The baseline risk of violent disorder is low.
The horizon is the next 12 months. These are qualitative author assessments, with medium confidence.
World Bank 2025 context: political stability 87.7/100; voice and accountability 78.0/100. These indicators do not predict protests.
Potential triggers above are scenarios, except where an official source explicitly reports an event. Peaceful protest is not violence.
The economic path.
One IMF vintage keeps revisions and projections consistent.
Real GDP growth
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections0.1% in 2024 · 0.7% in 2027
Average CPI inflation
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections2.7% in 2024 · 2.6% in 2027
Government debt / GDP
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections213.6% in 2024 · 196.4% in 2027
| Year / status | Debt / GDP | GDP growth | Inflation | Unemployment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Historical WEO series | 213.6% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 2.5% |
| 2025Historical WEO series | 204.8% | 1.2% | 3.2% | 2.5% |
| 2026Estimate / projection | 199.4% | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% |
| 2027Estimate / projection | 196.4% | 0.7% | 2.6% | 2.5% |
Historical values can include IMF estimates. India follows the IMF fiscal-year convention. Source-specific definitions limit cross-country precision.
Sources and exact series.
GGXWDG_NGDP · JPN · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.NGDP_RPCH · JPN · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.PCPIPCH · JPN · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.LUR · JPN · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.From 24 Sep 2026: the BOJ encourages the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.25 percent; From 17 Jun 2026 to 23 Sep 2026: the BOJ encourages the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 1.00 percent; From 22 Dec 2025 to 16 Jun 2026: the BOJ encourages the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.75 percent; From 27 Jan 2025 to 21 Dec 2025: the BOJ encourages the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.50 percent; From 1 Aug 2024 to 26 Jan 2025: the BOJ encouraged the UOCR to remain at around 0.25% ; From 21 Mar 2024 to 31 July: the BOJ encouraged the UOCR to remain at around 0 to 0.1 %; from 21 Sep 2016 to 20 Mar 2024: the BOJ set the guideline for market operations which specifies a short-term policy interest rate at minus 0.1% and a target level of 10-year JGB yields at around 0%. Short-term policy interest rate; from 4 Apr 2013 to 20 Sep 2016: no policy rate; from 5 Oct 2010 to 3 Apr 2013: the BOJ encouraged the UOCR to remain at around 0 to 0.1%; from 19 Dec 2008 to 4 Oct 2010: the BOJ encouraged the UOCR to remain at around 0. %; from 31 Oct 2008 to 18 Dec 2008: the BOJ encouraged the UOCR to remain at around 0.3%; before 30 Oct 2008, refer to https://data.bis.org/topics/CBPOL Source institution: Bank of Japan.
Accessed 25 October 2026.Eurostat key where available: A.PC_GDP.S13PU.F63_LE.JP. Values retain their own reference year.
Accessed 25 October 2026.2025 observations: GOV_WGI_GE_SC, GOV_WGI_PV_SC, and GOV_WGI_VA_SC. The economic formula uses effectiveness only.
Accessed 25 October 2026.The report uses country-specific discussion of demonstrations. Generic warnings alone do not establish the likelihood of riots.
Accessed 25 October 2026.External retirement-system benchmark, published 20 October 2026. The report preserves its score separately from the author rating.
Accessed 25 October 2026.