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EU · Country assessment

Luxembourg.

A low debt ratio provides room. GDP and financial-sector activity require caution when assessing the position of resident households.

IMF October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimates / projections · Assessment date: 25 October 2026

Government debt / GDP

28.5%

General government gross debt · 2026 E/P

Pension obligations / GDP

351%

Eurostat unfunded entitlements · 2021 · % GDP

Real GDP growth

1.1%

Annual real change · 2026 E/P

Consumer price inflation

3.0%

Annual average CPI · 2026 E/P

Unemployment

6.4%

Share of labour force · 2026 E/P

Interest rate

2.50%

ECB deposit facility
BIS observation: 2026-10-20

My economic rating

78out of 100

Sound

Growth

Public debt

Price stability

Employment

Government effectiveness

Each dimension has a 20% weight. This comparison score measures selected conditions; it is not a sovereign credit rating.

See the exact formula and its limits.

My pension system rating

3.5 / 5

Current promises are large relative to output. Cross-border workers and future contributor growth complicate a simple sustainability comparison.

External benchmark: Not covered by the 2026 Marsh CFA index. This rating is provisional.

Assessment confidence: Low / provisional. The author rating is distinct from the external benchmark.

What the pension figure means.

The table reports 351% of GDP in 2021 in accrued unfunded social insurance pension entitlements.

This values promises earned to date. It does not subtract future contributions or measure the tax increase needed for solvency.

Eurostat records accrued-to-date social insurance entitlements. Future contributions are not deducted. Coverage, discount rates, and benefit rules affect the value.

Read the pension evidence and definitions. (external source)

Annual pension spending: 10.39% of GDP in 2024. Eurostat ESSPROS includes public and relevant private cash benefits. This is a flow, separate from liabilities.

Private/funded entitlements: 7% of GDP in 2021. This is a gross entitlement measure, not pension assets or a net offset.

Protest and riot risk.

Disruptive protests / strikesLow

Riot / violent crowd disorderLow

Public demonstrations are possible, but the fiscal position gives more room to manage economic grievances.

The horizon is the next 12 months. These are qualitative author assessments, with medium confidence.

Country-specific official safety evidence provides context on demonstrations and disruption. Its overall travel rating is not used as a riot score.

World Bank 2025 context: political stability 86.5/100; voice and accountability 87.1/100. These indicators do not predict protests.

Potential triggers above are scenarios, except where an official source explicitly reports an event. Peaceful protest is not violence.

The economic path.

One IMF vintage keeps revisions and projections consistent.

Real GDP growth

WEO series · 2026–27 are projections

0.4% in 2024 · 1.6% in 2027

Average CPI inflation

WEO series · 2026–27 are projections

2.3% in 2024 · 2.6% in 2027

Government debt / GDP

WEO series · 2026–27 are projections

26.3% in 2024 · 30.0% in 2027

Annual macroeconomic series for Luxembourg
Year / status	Debt / GDP	GDP growth	Inflation	Unemployment
2024Historical WEO series	26.3%	0.4%	2.3%	5.7%
2025Historical WEO series	26.5%	0.6%	2.5%	6.0%
2026Estimate / projection	28.5%	1.1%	3.0%	6.4%
2027Estimate / projection	30.0%	1.6%	2.6%	6.5%

Historical values can include IMF estimates. India follows the IMF fiscal-year convention. Source-specific definitions limit cross-country precision.

Sources and exact series.

IMF · General government gross debt

GGXWDG_NGDP · LUX · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.

IMF · Real GDP growth

NGDP_RPCH · LUX · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.

IMF · Inflation rate, average consumer prices

PCPIPCH · LUX · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.

IMF · Unemployment rate

LUR · LUX · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.

BIS · Interest rate

From 18 Sep 2024 onwards: official central bank steering rate is the deposit facility rate, fixed rate; from 15 Oct 2008 to 17 Sep 2024: official central bank liquidity providing, main refinancing operations, fixed rate; from 28 Jun 2000 to 14 Oct 2008: official central bank liquidity providing, main refinancing operations, minimum bid rate; from 5 Jan 1999 to 27 Jun 2000: official central bank liquidity providing, main refinancing operations, fixed rate. Source institution: European Central Bank.

Accessed 25 October 2026.

Pension obligations and local funding evidence

Eurostat key where available: A.PC_GDP.S13PU.F63_LE.LU. Values retain their own reference year.

Accessed 25 October 2026.

World Bank · Governance context

2025 observations: GOV_WGI_GE_SC, GOV_WGI_PV_SC, and GOV_WGI_VA_SC. The economic formula uses effectiveness only.

Accessed 25 October 2026.

Official country guidance · Demonstrations

The report uses country-specific discussion of demonstrations. Generic warnings alone do not establish the likelihood of riots.

Accessed 25 October 2026.