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Americas · Country assessment
MX

Mexico.

A moderate debt burden provides some room, but weak growth limits gains. Low unemployment does not capture informal work or insecurity.

IMF October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimates / projections · Assessment date: 25 October 2026
Government debt / GDP
62.1%
General government gross debt · 2026 E/P (external source)
Pension obligations / GDP
Not comparable
No full national liability on the comparison basis.
Real GDP growth
1.5%
Annual real change · 2026 E/P (external source)
Consumer price inflation
3.8%
Annual average CPI · 2026 E/P (external source)
Unemployment
2.8%
Share of labour force · 2026 E/P (external source)
Interest rate
6.50%
Central bank policy rate
BIS observation: 2026-10-20
My economic rating
69out of 100
Sound
Growth
50
Public debt
70
Price stability
78
Employment
100
Government effectiveness
49

Each dimension has a 20% weight. This comparison score measures selected conditions; it is not a sovereign credit rating.

See the exact formula and its limits. (external source)
My pension system rating
3.5 / 5

Funded accounts improve the mix, but coverage and public top-up costs remain important. Pension assets are not a measure of pension debt.

External benchmark: 2026 Marsh CFA index (external source) · B · 71.2/100.

Assessment confidence: Medium. The author rating is distinct from the external benchmark.

What the pension figure means.

N/C means that a full national measure on the Eurostat basis was not established. It does not mean zero pension obligations.

The finance ministry reports Afore assets of 24% of GDP in May 2026. These assets are retirement saving, not pension debt; liabilities require separate scheme and funding assumptions.

Read the pension evidence and definitions. (external source)

Protest and riot risk.

Disruptive protests / strikesElevated
Riot / violent crowd disorderModerate

Public services, insecurity, and policy disputes could produce demonstrations and local clashes. Organised crime is separate from riot risk.

The horizon is the next 12 months. These are qualitative author assessments, with medium confidence.

Country-specific official safety evidence (external source) provides context on demonstrations and disruption. Its overall travel rating is not used as a riot score.

World Bank 2025 context: political stability 55.0/100; voice and accountability 52.5/100. These indicators do not predict protests.

Potential triggers above are scenarios, except where an official source explicitly reports an event. Peaceful protest is not violence.

The economic path.

One IMF vintage keeps revisions and projections consistent.

Real GDP growth

WEO series · 2026–27 are projections2024: 1.5%, 2025: 0.5%, 2026: 1.5%, 2027: 1.8%2024202520262027

1.5% in 2024 · 1.8% in 2027

Average CPI inflation

WEO series · 2026–27 are projections2024: 4.7%, 2025: 3.8%, 2026: 3.8%, 2027: 3.6%2024202520262027

4.7% in 2024 · 3.6% in 2027

Government debt / GDP

WEO series · 2026–27 are projections2024: 59.0%, 2025: 61.7%, 2026: 62.1%, 2027: 62.9%2024202520262027

59.0% in 2024 · 62.9% in 2027

Annual macroeconomic series for Mexico
Year / statusDebt / GDPGDP growthInflationUnemployment
2024Historical WEO series59.0%1.5%4.7%2.7%
2025Historical WEO series61.7%0.5%3.8%2.6%
2026Estimate / projection62.1%1.5%3.8%2.8%
2027Estimate / projection62.9%1.8%3.6%2.8%

Historical values can include IMF estimates. India follows the IMF fiscal-year convention. Source-specific definitions limit cross-country precision.

Sources and exact series.

IMF · General government gross debt (external source)

GGXWDG_NGDP · MEX · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
IMF · Real GDP growth (external source)

NGDP_RPCH · MEX · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
IMF · Inflation rate, average consumer prices (external source)

PCPIPCH · MEX · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
IMF · Unemployment rate (external source)

LUR · MEX · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
BIS · Interest rate (external source)

From 21 Jan 2008 onwards: Central Bank target, money-market overnight rate; from 3 Nov 1998 to 20 Jan 2008: bank funding rate. Source institution: Bank of Mexico.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
Pension obligations and local funding evidence (external source)

Eurostat key where available: A.PC_GDP.S13PU.F63_LE.MX. Values retain their own reference year.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
World Bank · Governance context (external source)

2025 observations: GOV_WGI_GE_SC, GOV_WGI_PV_SC, and GOV_WGI_VA_SC. The economic formula uses effectiveness only.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
Official country guidance · Demonstrations (external source)

The report uses country-specific discussion of demonstrations. Generic warnings alone do not establish the likelihood of riots.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
2026 Marsh CFA Institute Global Pension Index (external source)

External retirement-system benchmark, published 20 October 2026. The report preserves its score separately from the author rating.

Accessed 25 October 2026.