New Zealand.
Public debt and a recovering economy need joint assessment. Household financing costs and a small domestic market can amplify external shocks.
BIS observation: 2026-10-16
What the pension figure means.
N/C means that a full national measure on the Eurostat basis was not established. It does not mean zero pension obligations.
The 2026 IMF review describes public pension spending rising from around 5% of GDP toward 8% by 2065 under unchanged settings. This is a spending projection, not pension debt.
Read the pension evidence and definitions. (external source)
Protest and riot risk.
Public services, living costs, and policy disputes could generate demonstrations. Violent disorder is a lower baseline risk.
The horizon is the next 12 months. These are qualitative author assessments, with medium confidence.
World Bank 2025 context: political stability 86.3/100; voice and accountability 87.3/100. These indicators do not predict protests.
Potential triggers above are scenarios, except where an official source explicitly reports an event. Peaceful protest is not violence.
The economic path.
One IMF vintage keeps revisions and projections consistent.
Real GDP growth
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections-0.3% in 2024 · 2.6% in 2027
Average CPI inflation
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections2.9% in 2024 · 2.8% in 2027
Government debt / GDP
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections51.4% in 2024 · 58.0% in 2027
| Year / status | Debt / GDP | GDP growth | Inflation | Unemployment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Historical WEO series | 51.4% | -0.3% | 2.9% | 4.8% |
| 2025Historical WEO series | 54.7% | 0.3% | 2.8% | 5.3% |
| 2026Estimate / projection | 57.1% | 2.0% | 4.1% | 5.4% |
| 2027Estimate / projection | 58.0% | 2.6% | 2.8% | 5.1% |
Historical values can include IMF estimates. India follows the IMF fiscal-year convention. Source-specific definitions limit cross-country precision.
Sources and exact series.
GGXWDG_NGDP · NZL · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.NGDP_RPCH · NZL · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.PCPIPCH · NZL · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.LUR · NZL · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.From 17 Mar 1999 onwards: Official market intervention representative rate, official cash rate; from Jan 1985 to 16 Mar 1999: overnight cash rate. Source institution: Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
Accessed 25 October 2026.Eurostat key where available: A.PC_GDP.S13PU.F63_LE.NZ. Values retain their own reference year.
Accessed 25 October 2026.2025 observations: GOV_WGI_GE_SC, GOV_WGI_PV_SC, and GOV_WGI_VA_SC. The economic formula uses effectiveness only.
Accessed 25 October 2026.The report uses country-specific discussion of demonstrations. Generic warnings alone do not establish the likelihood of riots.
Accessed 25 October 2026.External retirement-system benchmark, published 20 October 2026. The report preserves its score separately from the author rating.
Accessed 25 October 2026.