yes.comEconomic research
Back to the comparisonPrevious · Next
EU · Country assessment
RO

Romania.

Inflation and the debt path can restrict fiscal choices. Economic adjustment needs to protect employment and productive investment.

IMF October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimates / projections · Assessment date: 25 October 2026
Government debt / GDP
62.6%
General government gross debt · 2026 E/P (external source)
Pension obligations / GDP
377%
Eurostat unfunded entitlements · 2021 · % GDP
Real GDP growth
-0.5%
Annual real change · 2026 E/P (external source)
Consumer price inflation
8.2%
Annual average CPI · 2026 E/P (external source)
Unemployment
6.5%
Share of labour force · 2026 E/P (external source)
Interest rate
6.50%
Central bank policy rate
BIS observation: 2026-10-20
My economic rating
49out of 100
Strained
Growth
21
Public debt
70
Price stability
23
Employment
71
Government effectiveness
60

Each dimension has a 20% weight. This comparison score measures selected conditions; it is not a sovereign credit rating.

See the exact formula and its limits. (external source)
My pension system rating
2.5 / 5

Large accrued promises require future financing. I rate the system cautiously because benefits compete with other public spending needs.

External benchmark: Not covered by the 2026 Marsh CFA index. This rating is provisional.

Assessment confidence: Low / provisional. The author rating is distinct from the external benchmark.

What the pension figure means.

The table reports 377% of GDP in 2021 in accrued unfunded social insurance pension entitlements.

This values promises earned to date. It does not subtract future contributions or measure the tax increase needed for solvency.

Eurostat records accrued-to-date social insurance entitlements. Future contributions are not deducted. Coverage, discount rates, and benefit rules affect the value.

Read the pension evidence and definitions. (external source)

Annual pension spending: 9.09% of GDP in 2024. Eurostat ESSPROS (external source) includes public and relevant private cash benefits. This is a flow, separate from liabilities.
Private/funded entitlements: 7% of GDP in 2021. This is a gross entitlement measure, not pension assets or a net offset.

Protest and riot risk.

Disruptive protests / strikesElevated
Riot / violent crowd disorderModerate

Fiscal adjustment, tax changes, and confidence in institutions could generate large demonstrations and local clashes.

The horizon is the next 12 months. These are qualitative author assessments, with medium confidence.

Country-specific official safety evidence (external source) provides context on demonstrations and disruption. Its overall travel rating is not used as a riot score.

World Bank 2025 context: political stability 69.2/100; voice and accountability 65.8/100. These indicators do not predict protests.

Potential triggers above are scenarios, except where an official source explicitly reports an event. Peaceful protest is not violence.

The economic path.

One IMF vintage keeps revisions and projections consistent.

Real GDP growth

WEO series · 2026–27 are projections2024: 0.9%, 2025: 0.7%, 2026: -0.5%, 2027: 2.2%2024202520262027

0.9% in 2024 · 2.2% in 2027

Average CPI inflation

WEO series · 2026–27 are projections2024: 5.6%, 2025: 7.3%, 2026: 8.2%, 2027: 4.1%2024202520262027

5.6% in 2024 · 4.1% in 2027

Government debt / GDP

WEO series · 2026–27 are projections2024: 57.5%, 2025: 60.4%, 2026: 62.6%, 2027: 64.9%2024202520262027

57.5% in 2024 · 64.9% in 2027

Annual macroeconomic series for Romania
Year / statusDebt / GDPGDP growthInflationUnemployment
2024Historical WEO series57.5%0.9%5.6%5.4%
2025Historical WEO series60.4%0.7%7.3%6.1%
2026Estimate / projection62.6%-0.5%8.2%6.5%
2027Estimate / projection64.9%2.2%4.1%5.9%

Historical values can include IMF estimates. India follows the IMF fiscal-year convention. Source-specific definitions limit cross-country precision.

Sources and exact series.

IMF · General government gross debt (external source)

GGXWDG_NGDP · ROU · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
IMF · Real GDP growth (external source)

NGDP_RPCH · ROU · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
IMF · Inflation rate, average consumer prices (external source)

PCPIPCH · ROU · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
IMF · Unemployment rate (external source)

LUR · ROU · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
BIS · Interest rate (external source)

Official policy rate. Source institution: National Bank of Romania .

Accessed 25 October 2026.
Pension obligations and local funding evidence (external source)

Eurostat key where available: A.PC_GDP.S13PU.F63_LE.RO. Values retain their own reference year.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
World Bank · Governance context (external source)

2025 observations: GOV_WGI_GE_SC, GOV_WGI_PV_SC, and GOV_WGI_VA_SC. The economic formula uses effectiveness only.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
Official country guidance · Demonstrations (external source)

The report uses country-specific discussion of demonstrations. Generic warnings alone do not establish the likelihood of riots.

Accessed 25 October 2026.