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Other Europe · Country assessment
RU

Russia.

Low reported debt does not remove war, sanctions, inflation, or information risks. Reported unemployment is an incomplete measure of economic health.

IMF October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimates / projections · Assessment date: 25 October 2026
Government debt / GDP
19.3%
General government gross debt · 2026 E/P (external source)
Pension obligations / GDP
Not comparable
No full national liability on the comparison basis.
Real GDP growth
0.9%
Annual real change · 2026 E/P (external source)
Consumer price inflation
6.1%
Annual average CPI · 2026 E/P (external source)
Unemployment
2.2%
Share of labour force · 2026 E/P (external source)
Interest rate
14.00%
Central bank policy rate
BIS observation: 2026-10-20
My economic rating
66out of 100
Sound
Growth
41
Public debt
100
Price stability
49
Employment
100
Government effectiveness
42

Each dimension has a 20% weight. This comparison score measures selected conditions; it is not a sovereign credit rating.

See the exact formula and its limits. (external source)
My pension system rating
2.0 / 5

The system relies heavily on public revenues. I assign a provisional low rating because financing, real benefit values, and data comparability remain concerns.

External benchmark: Not covered by the 2026 Marsh CFA index. This rating is provisional.

Assessment confidence: Low / provisional. The author rating is distinct from the external benchmark.

What the pension figure means.

N/C means that a full national measure on the Eurostat basis was not established. It does not mean zero pension obligations.

The Social Fund publishes annual budget and operating reports. I did not establish a comparable national accrued-to-date pension liability from this reporting.

Read the pension evidence and definitions. (external source)

Protest and riot risk.

Disruptive protests / strikesModerate
Riot / violent crowd disorderModerate

Restrictions can suppress visible demonstrations without removing grievances. Mobilisation and income shocks are potential triggers; confidence in the assessment is low.

The horizon is the next 12 months. These are qualitative author assessments, with low confidence.

Country-specific official safety evidence (external source) provides context on demonstrations and disruption. Its overall travel rating is not used as a riot score.

World Bank 2025 context: political stability 49.0/100; voice and accountability 31.3/100. These indicators do not predict protests.

Potential triggers above are scenarios, except where an official source explicitly reports an event. Peaceful protest is not violence.

The economic path.

One IMF vintage keeps revisions and projections consistent.

Real GDP growth

WEO series · 2026–27 are projections2024: 4.9%, 2025: 1.0%, 2026: 0.9%, 2027: 0.9%2024202520262027

4.9% in 2024 · 0.9% in 2027

Average CPI inflation

WEO series · 2026–27 are projections2024: 8.4%, 2025: 8.7%, 2026: 6.1%, 2027: 4.8%2024202520262027

8.4% in 2024 · 4.8% in 2027

Government debt / GDP

WEO series · 2026–27 are projections2024: 14.8%, 2025: 16.6%, 2026: 19.3%, 2027: 22.2%2024202520262027

14.8% in 2024 · 22.2% in 2027

Annual macroeconomic series for Russia
Year / statusDebt / GDPGDP growthInflationUnemployment
2024Historical WEO series14.8%4.9%8.4%2.5%
2025Historical WEO series16.6%1.0%8.7%2.2%
2026Estimate / projection19.3%0.9%6.1%2.2%
2027Estimate / projection22.2%0.9%4.8%2.4%

Historical values can include IMF estimates. India follows the IMF fiscal-year convention. Source-specific definitions limit cross-country precision.

Sources and exact series.

IMF · General government gross debt (external source)

GGXWDG_NGDP · RUS · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
IMF · Real GDP growth (external source)

NGDP_RPCH · RUS · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
IMF · Inflation rate, average consumer prices (external source)

PCPIPCH · RUS · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
IMF · Unemployment rate (external source)

LUR · RUS · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
BIS · Interest rate (external source)

From 13 Sept 2013 onwards: official key rate; from 1 Jan 1992 to 12 Sep 2013: official refinancing rate. Source institution: Bank of Russia.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
Pension obligations and local funding evidence (external source)

Eurostat key where available: A.PC_GDP.S13PU.F63_LE.RU. Values retain their own reference year.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
World Bank · Governance context (external source)

2025 observations: GOV_WGI_GE_SC, GOV_WGI_PV_SC, and GOV_WGI_VA_SC. The economic formula uses effectiveness only.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
Official country guidance · Demonstrations (external source)

The report uses country-specific discussion of demonstrations. Generic warnings alone do not establish the likelihood of riots.

Accessed 25 October 2026.