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EU · Country assessment
SE

Sweden.

Low public debt and strong institutions support resilience. Labour-market weakness can still create household stress.

IMF October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimates / projections · Assessment date: 25 October 2026
Government debt / GDP
35.1%
General government gross debt · 2026 E/P (external source)
Pension obligations / GDP
192%
Eurostat unfunded entitlements · 2021 · % GDP
Real GDP growth
2.5%
Annual real change · 2026 E/P (external source)
Consumer price inflation
1.1%
Annual average CPI · 2026 E/P (external source)
Unemployment
8.5%
Share of labour force · 2026 E/P (external source)
Interest rate
1.75%
Central bank policy rate
BIS observation: 2026-10-20
My economic rating
77out of 100
Sound
Growth
64
Public debt
89
Price stability
89
Employment
54
Government effectiveness
90

Each dimension has a 20% weight. This comparison score measures selected conditions; it is not a sovereign credit rating.

See the exact formula and its limits. (external source)
My pension system rating
4.5 / 5

Automatic adjustment and funded saving support resilience. Individual benefits still depend on work histories and investment outcomes.

External benchmark: 2026 Marsh CFA index (external source) · B+ · 78.8/100.

Assessment confidence: Medium. The author rating is distinct from the external benchmark.

What the pension figure means.

The table reports 192% of GDP in 2021 in accrued unfunded social insurance pension entitlements.

This values promises earned to date. It does not subtract future contributions or measure the tax increase needed for solvency.

Eurostat records accrued-to-date social insurance entitlements. Future contributions are not deducted. Coverage, discount rates, and benefit rules affect the value.

Read the pension evidence and definitions. (external source)

Annual pension spending: 10.81% of GDP in 2024. Eurostat ESSPROS (external source) includes public and relevant private cash benefits. This is a flow, separate from liabilities.
Private/funded entitlements: 110% of GDP in 2021. This is a gross entitlement measure, not pension assets or a net offset.

Protest and riot risk.

Disruptive protests / strikesModerate
Riot / violent crowd disorderModerate

Household costs and public policy disputes could generate demonstrations. Local disorder remains a separate risk.

The horizon is the next 12 months. These are qualitative author assessments, with medium confidence.

Country-specific official safety evidence (external source) provides context on demonstrations and disruption. Its overall travel rating is not used as a riot score.

World Bank 2025 context: political stability 80.5/100; voice and accountability 87.6/100. These indicators do not predict protests.

Potential triggers above are scenarios, except where an official source explicitly reports an event. Peaceful protest is not violence.

The economic path.

One IMF vintage keeps revisions and projections consistent.

Real GDP growth

WEO series · 2026–27 are projections2024: 2.0%, 2025: 1.4%, 2026: 2.5%, 2027: 2.2%2024202520262027

2.0% in 2024 · 2.2% in 2027

Average CPI inflation

WEO series · 2026–27 are projections2024: 2.0%, 2025: 2.6%, 2026: 1.1%, 2027: 1.9%2024202520262027

2.0% in 2024 · 1.9% in 2027

Government debt / GDP

WEO series · 2026–27 are projections2024: 33.9%, 2025: 34.5%, 2026: 35.1%, 2027: 35.5%2024202520262027

33.9% in 2024 · 35.5% in 2027

Annual macroeconomic series for Sweden
Year / statusDebt / GDPGDP growthInflationUnemployment
2024Historical WEO series33.9%2.0%2.0%8.4%
2025Historical WEO series34.5%1.4%2.6%8.9%
2026Estimate / projection35.1%2.5%1.1%8.5%
2027Estimate / projection35.5%2.2%1.9%8.1%

Historical values can include IMF estimates. India follows the IMF fiscal-year convention. Source-specific definitions limit cross-country precision.

Sources and exact series.

IMF · General government gross debt (external source)

GGXWDG_NGDP · SWE · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
IMF · Real GDP growth (external source)

NGDP_RPCH · SWE · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
IMF · Inflation rate, average consumer prices (external source)

PCPIPCH · SWE · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
IMF · Unemployment rate (external source)

LUR · SWE · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
BIS · Interest rate (external source)

From 1 Jun 1994 onwards: Central Bank fixed repo/reversed repo rate; from 30 Jan 1987 to 31 May 1994: marginal rate; from 1 Jan 1946 to 29 Jan 1987: discount rate. Source institution: Sveriges Riksbank.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
Pension obligations and local funding evidence (external source)

Eurostat key where available: A.PC_GDP.S13PU.F63_LE.SE. Values retain their own reference year.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
World Bank · Governance context (external source)

2025 observations: GOV_WGI_GE_SC, GOV_WGI_PV_SC, and GOV_WGI_VA_SC. The economic formula uses effectiveness only.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
Official country guidance · Demonstrations (external source)

The report uses country-specific discussion of demonstrations. Generic warnings alone do not establish the likelihood of riots.

Accessed 25 October 2026.
2026 Marsh CFA Institute Global Pension Index (external source)

External retirement-system benchmark, published 20 October 2026. The report preserves its score separately from the author rating.

Accessed 25 October 2026.