United Kingdom.
A large debt burden limits fiscal room. Productivity and real household income remain central to a durable improvement.
BIS observation: 2026-10-19
What the pension figure means.
N/C means that a full national measure on the Eurostat basis was not established. It does not mean zero pension obligations.
The 2024–25 government accounts report £1,395.8 billion in net public-sector pension liabilities. This excludes the State Pension and private pensions. The ONS 2021 Table 29 marks State Pension data as unavailable. Its available totals therefore cannot supply the full comparable measure.
Read the pension evidence and definitions. (external source)
Protest and riot risk.
Living costs, public services, and political disputes could mobilise demonstrations and local violent disorder.
The horizon is the next 12 months. These are qualitative author assessments, with medium confidence.
World Bank 2025 context: political stability 70.7/100; voice and accountability 81.3/100. These indicators do not predict protests.
Potential triggers above are scenarios, except where an official source explicitly reports an event. Peaceful protest is not violence.
The economic path.
One IMF vintage keeps revisions and projections consistent.
Real GDP growth
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections1.1% in 2024 · 1.2% in 2027
Average CPI inflation
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections2.5% in 2024 · 2.8% in 2027
Government debt / GDP
WEO series · 2026–27 are projections99.4% in 2024 · 102.5% in 2027
| Year / status | Debt / GDP | GDP growth | Inflation | Unemployment |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024Historical WEO series | 99.4% | 1.1% | 2.5% | 4.3% |
| 2025Historical WEO series | 102.1% | 1.2% | 3.4% | 4.9% |
| 2026Estimate / projection | 102.0% | 1.3% | 3.3% | 5.3% |
| 2027Estimate / projection | 102.5% | 1.2% | 2.8% | 5.3% |
Historical values can include IMF estimates. India follows the IMF fiscal-year convention. Source-specific definitions limit cross-country precision.
Sources and exact series.
GGXWDG_NGDP · GBR · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.NGDP_RPCH · GBR · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.PCPIPCH · GBR · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.LUR · GBR · October 2026 vintage · 2026 estimate / projection. Raw JSON is saved in the report’s sources folder.
Accessed 25 October 2026.From 3 Aug 2006 onwards: official bank rate; from 6 May 1997 to 2 Aug 2006: repo rate; from 20 Aug 1981 to 5 May 1997: minimum Bank of England Band 1 dealing rate; from 16 Oct 1972 to 19 Aug 1981: minimum lending rate; from 1 Jan 1946 to 15 Oct 1972: bank rate. Source institution: Bank of England.
Accessed 25 October 2026.Eurostat key where available: A.PC_GDP.S13PU.F63_LE.GB. Values retain their own reference year.
Accessed 25 October 2026.2025 observations: GOV_WGI_GE_SC, GOV_WGI_PV_SC, and GOV_WGI_VA_SC. The economic formula uses effectiveness only.
Accessed 25 October 2026.The report uses country-specific discussion of demonstrations. Generic warnings alone do not establish the likelihood of riots.
Accessed 25 October 2026.External retirement-system benchmark, published 20 October 2026. The report preserves its score separately from the author rating.
Accessed 25 October 2026.