How resilient are
these 41 economies?
Compare public debt, pension obligations, growth, prices, employment, and interest rates. Open any country for the evidence behind its ratings.
Australia
My highest pension tier combines broad retirement provision with substantial funded saving. It is separate from economic strength.
Norway and Canada hold substantial public financial assets. Ireland’s GDP denominator needs special care. Each profile explains these limits.
Pension reform
Economic pressure can raise grievances. The risk assessment also considers mobilisation, institutions, and country-specific evidence.
One table. Every country.
Click a heading to sort. Click a country to open its detail page.
| ArgentinaAmericas | 69.3% | N/CSee local evidence | 2.1% | 32.5% | 7.6% | No single rateMonetary aggregates | 49Strained | 1.5Medium confidence | High | Elevated |
| AustraliaAsia-Pacific | 52.6% | N/CSee local evidence | 1.9% | 3.9% | 4.4% | 4.60%2026-10-15 | 77Sound | 5.0Medium confidence | Moderate | Low |
| AustriaEU | 82.4% | 450%2021 | 0.6% | 3.1% | 5.7% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 68Sound | 2.5Medium confidence | Moderate | Low |
| BelgiumEU | 109.8% | 317%2021 | 0.7% | 3.8% | 6.2% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 61Mixed | 3.5Medium confidence | Elevated | Moderate |
| BrazilAmericas | 97.0% | N/CSee local evidence | 2.2% | 4.4% | 6.2% | 13.75%2026-10-20 | 60Mixed | 2.5Medium confidence | Elevated | Elevated |
| BulgariaEU | 32.9% | 196%2021 | 2.6% | 4.9% | 3.4% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 74Sound | 2.5Low / provisional confidence | Elevated | Moderate |
| CanadaAmericas | 115.6% | N/CSee local evidence | 1.1% | 2.8% | 6.5% | 2.25%2026-10-19 | 65Sound | 4.0Medium confidence | Moderate | Moderate |
| ChinaAsia-Pacific | 104.4% | N/CSee local evidence | 4.5% | 1.0% | 5.1% | 3.00%2026-10-19 · LPR | 74Sound | 3.0Medium confidence | Moderate | Moderate |
| CroatiaEU | 56.3% | 321%2021 | 2.2% | 4.5% | 4.5% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 72Sound | 3.5Medium confidence | Moderate | Low |
| CyprusEU | 51.4% | 288%2021 | 2.9% | 3.7% | 4.0% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 77Sound | 3.0Low / provisional confidence | Moderate | Low |
| CzechiaEU | 45.8% | 273%2024 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.0% | 3.75%2026-10-19 | 82Strong | 3.5Low / provisional confidence | Moderate | Low |
| DenmarkEU | 26.4% | 21%2023 | 3.7% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 2.10%2026-10-19 | 93Strong | 5.0Medium confidence | Low | Low |
| EstoniaEU | 27.5% | 312%2021 | 2.1% | 3.0% | 6.8% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 78Sound | 3.0Low / provisional confidence | Moderate | Low |
| FinlandEU | 90.6% | 352%2023 | 1.7% | 2.4% | 10.2% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 66Sound | 4.0Medium confidence | Elevated | Low |
| FranceEU | 118.5% | 397%2021 | 0.4% | 2.4% | 8.4% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 58Mixed | 3.5Medium confidence | High | High |
| GermanyEU | 64.6% | 320%2021 | 1.3% | 2.7% | 4.0% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 76Sound | 3.5Medium confidence | Elevated | Moderate |
| GreeceEU | 136.0% | 403%2021 | 1.8% | 4.2% | 8.0% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 52Mixed | 3.0Low / provisional confidence | Elevated | Elevated |
| HungaryEU | 78.7% | 332%2021 | 1.9% | 1.9% | 4.5% | 5.50%2026-10-14 | 72Sound | 2.5Low / provisional confidence | Elevated | Moderate |
| IndiaAsia-Pacific | 83.1% | N/CSee local evidence | 7.0% | 5.0% | 5.0% | 5.50%2026-10-19 | 73Sound | 1.5Medium confidence | Elevated | Elevated |
| IrelandEU | 33.5% | 144%2021 | -1.0% | 3.4% | 5.0% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 71Sound | 3.5Medium confidence | Elevated | Moderate |
| ItalyEU | 137.9% | 429%2021 | 0.8% | 3.3% | 5.6% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 58Mixed | 2.5Medium confidence | Elevated | Moderate |
| JapanAsia-Pacific | 199.4% | N/CSee local evidence | 0.7% | 2.0% | 2.5% | 1.25%2026-10-20 | 67Sound | 2.5Medium confidence | Low | Low |
| LatviaEU | 47.0% | 249%2023 | 2.3% | 3.6% | 6.7% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 72Sound | 3.0Low / provisional confidence | Moderate | Low |
| LithuaniaEU | 44.7% | 358%2023 | 2.7% | 5.4% | 6.8% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 71Sound | 3.0Low / provisional confidence | Moderate | Low |
| LuxembourgEU | 28.5% | 351%2021 | 1.1% | 3.0% | 6.4% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 78Sound | 3.5Low / provisional confidence | Low | Low |
| MaltaEU | 46.4% | 225%2021 | 4.2% | 2.4% | 3.0% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 87Strong | 3.0Low / provisional confidence | Moderate | Low |
| MexicoAmericas | 62.1% | N/CSee local evidence | 1.5% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 6.50%2026-10-20 | 69Sound | 3.5Medium confidence | Elevated | Moderate |
| NetherlandsEU | 45.4% | 210%2021 | 1.5% | 2.9% | 4.0% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 80Strong | 5.0Medium confidence | Elevated | Moderate |
| New ZealandAsia-Pacific | 57.1% | N/CSee local evidence | 2.0% | 4.1% | 5.4% | 2.75%2026-10-16 | 75Sound | 4.0Medium confidence | Moderate | Low |
| NorwayOther Europe | 40.0% | 264%2021 | 1.5% | 3.2% | 4.6% | 4.50%2026-10-13 | 79Sound | 4.5Medium confidence | Low | Low |
| PolandEU | 66.6% | 292%2021 | 3.4% | 3.2% | 3.2% | 3.75%2026-10-20 | 79Sound | 2.5Medium confidence | Elevated | Moderate |
| PortugalEU | 85.1% | 373%2021 | 2.1% | 3.2% | 5.9% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 69Sound | 3.5Medium confidence | Elevated | Low |
| RomaniaEU | 62.6% | 377%2021 | -0.5% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 6.50%2026-10-20 | 49Strained | 2.5Low / provisional confidence | Elevated | Moderate |
| RussiaOther Europe | 19.3% | N/CSee local evidence | 0.9% | 6.1% | 2.2% | 14.00%2026-10-20 | 66Sound | 2.0Low / provisional confidence | Moderate | Moderate |
| SlovakiaEU | 62.2% | 228%2021 | 0.8% | 3.6% | 5.8% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 66Sound | 3.0Low / provisional confidence | Elevated | Moderate |
| SloveniaEU | 63.5% | 389%2021 | 3.2% | 3.5% | 3.9% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 78Sound | 3.5Low / provisional confidence | Moderate | Low |
| South KoreaAsia-Pacific | 47.3% | N/CSee local evidence | 3.3% | 2.7% | 2.8% | 3.00%2026-10-08 | 86Strong | 2.5Medium confidence | High | Moderate |
| SpainEU | 97.6% | 496%2021 | 2.5% | 3.7% | 9.8% | 2.50%2026-10-20 | 61Mixed | 3.0Medium confidence | Elevated | Moderate |
| SwedenEU | 35.1% | 192%2021 | 2.5% | 1.1% | 8.5% | 1.75%2026-10-20 | 77Sound | 4.5Medium confidence | Moderate | Moderate |
| United KingdomOther Europe | 102.0% | N/CSee local evidence | 1.3% | 3.3% | 5.3% | 3.75%2026-10-19 | 66Sound | 3.5Medium confidence | Elevated | Elevated |
| United StatesAmericas | 126.8% | N/CSee local evidence | 2.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 3.75–4.00%2026-10-20 | 66Sound | 3.0Medium confidence | Elevated | Elevated |
¹ Pension obligations: Eurostat accrued unfunded social insurance entitlements. These are gross earned promises, not net funding gaps. N/C means a comparable full national value was not established. The UK’s 2021 table omits State Pension data.
² Interest rates: Latest valid BIS observation available in this download, 8–20 October 2026. China uses a one-year LPR lending benchmark. The US shows the target range; sorting uses its midpoint. Argentina has no single policy rate.
³ Risk: Qualitative author assessments of disruptive mobilisation and violent crowd disorder. They are separate, uncalibrated judgments, not probabilities. Low does not mean zero.
Compare the same concept.
The economic data.
All four macro columns use the October 2026 IMF WEO vintage. The comparison year is 2026, which remains incomplete.
Debt means general government gross debt as a share of GDP. Definitions and valuation practices still differ between countries.
Growth is annual real GDP growth. Inflation is annual average CPI inflation. Unemployment is the unemployed share of the labour force.
These are not the latest monthly releases. India follows the IMF fiscal-year convention. Low unemployment can coexist with informality or labour shortages.
Euro area members use the same ECB rate. Bulgaria is included in the euro area in 2026. The rate is not a sovereign bond yield.
The pension data.
The pension column uses Eurostat’s S13PU unfunded entitlements, F63_LE closing balance, measured as a percentage of GDP.
It values pension rights already earned. It does not deduct future contributions and is not the same as a projected financing gap.
Latest reference years vary from 2021 to 2024. Use the common-year selector to compare 2021 observations where available.
Benefit coverage and discount assumptions affect comparability. Tax-financed basic or social assistance pensions can fall outside the social insurance measure.
A smaller figure can reflect narrower benefits. Denmark’s low figure is not the full cost of retirement provision.
Do not add this column to public debt. Coverage can overlap, and the valuation bases differ.
How I rate each economy.
The score is the equal-weight average of five dimensions, each bounded between zero and 100. It has no country-specific overrides.
- Growth: (real GDP growth + 2) ÷ 7 × 100.
- Public debt: (160 − debt/GDP) ÷ 140 × 100.
- Price stability: 100 − |inflation − 2| × 12.5.
- Employment: (15 − unemployment) ÷ 12 × 100.
- Institutions: World Bank 2025 government effectiveness, on its absolute 0–100 scale.
Labels: Strong ≥80; Sound 65–79; Mixed 50–64; Strained 35–49; Fragile <35.
The 2% inflation reference is a comparison choice, not every country’s target. Rapid catch-up growth receives a high growth score.
The formula excludes public assets, external balances, debt maturity, reserve currencies, household debt, and income levels. Country notes explain important omissions.
This measures selected economic conditions. It does not predict default, investment returns, or household living standards.
How I rate each pension system.
The author scale runs from 1 to 5. Higher means a better balance of adequacy, coverage, funding diversity, governance, and fiscal durability.
5 = strong; 4 = good; 3 = mixed; 2 = weak; 1 = fragile. Half-points express judgments between these levels.
The 2026 Marsh CFA pension index supplies an external benchmark where available. Each country page shows its separate grade and score.
My assessment also considers fiscal pressure and local actuarial evidence. It is not a mechanical conversion of that external grade.
Countries without an index benchmark receive provisional, low-confidence ratings. No missing benchmark is treated as zero.
How I assess protest and riot risk.
The horizon runs from 25 October 2026 to 25 October 2027. Ratings describe country-level conditions and can hide major local differences.
Protests: The risk of disruptive mobilisation or strikes. Peaceful civic participation alone is not an adverse economic outcome.
Riots: The risk of violent crowd disorder. This excludes ordinary crime, terrorism, and interstate war.
Low = limited baseline pressure; Moderate = plausible local disruption; Elevated = material triggers or mobilisation; High = repeated major disruption or current severe escalation.
I consider country guidance, economic pressures, plausible reform triggers, and governance context. Travel advice is qualitative evidence, not a statistical event database.
These are uncalibrated author judgments. Generic guidance does not establish event frequency. China and Russia have lower assessment confidence.
Trace every comparison.
Each country page links its indicator series and country-specific evidence. The download includes source snapshots, structured data, and the build script.
The four macroeconomic series are retrieved through the official DataMapper API. Metadata explicitly identifies the October 2026 vintage.
Accessed 25 October 2026.Official bulk download: WS_CBPOL_csv_col.zip. The report retains each rate’s date, definition, and source institution.
Accessed 25 October 2026.Dataset nasa_10_pens1, updated 10 March 2026. Source years differ. The report retains the 2021 comparison and latest available values.
Accessed 25 October 2026.Defines core and supplementary pension accounts, scope, discount assumptions, and the treatment of unfunded promises.
Accessed 25 October 2026.Dataset tps00103, updated 7 October 2026. This is supplementary context on country pages and is separate from the liability measure.
Accessed 25 October 2026.Published 20 October 2026. External grades and scores are shown separately from author assessments.
Accessed 25 October 2026.Background on retirement-system design and reform. Local actuarial and fiscal reports supply additional evidence for countries outside Eurostat.
Accessed 25 October 2026.2026 update; 2025 data. Uses government effectiveness in the economic formula, with stability and voice shown as context.
Accessed 25 October 2026.Country pages use demonstration and disruption guidance. UK government guidance supplies the Canada profile. The source’s overall travel rating is not a riot score.
Accessed 25 October 2026.